FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.88 – 26.28

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.8 ±11.2

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 19.04Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX -0.24Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 103.08Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.4 ±11.6

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX -3.89Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -24.02Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 54.19Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1446, 1719, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1446, 1719, 686

Auto

29.2 24%

Teleop

65.4 53%

Endgame

29.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10679, 1111, 8726

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 1111, 8726

Auto

34.2 100%

Teleop

-7.7 0%

Endgame

-5.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.9pts

Blue projected score26.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.6
Score range: 1–147
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 139.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.8Season APEX215.4

29.2Auto34.2

65.4Teleop-7.7

29.4Endgame-5.9

38Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	14
teleop	66	8
endgame	23	14
foul	0	0
total	124	36

Result

Final score

124 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 5.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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