FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.92 – 171.61

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 139.5 ±13.3

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 39.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 25.96Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -14.55Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.2 ±11.2

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 16.07Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 35.35Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 120.19Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1418, 2963, 10449

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1418, 2963, 10449

Auto

8.9 19%

Teleop

20.6 43%

Endgame

18.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7770, 2377, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7770, 2377, 1629

Auto

31.9 19%

Teleop

101.2 62%

Endgame

31.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.9pts

Blue projected score171.6pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -120.7
Score range: 26–197
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 353 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

139.5Season APEX353.2

8.9Auto31.9

20.6Teleop101.2

18Endgame31

81Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	60
teleop	46	143
endgame	27	69
foul	0	0
total	81	272

Result

Final score

81 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 65.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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