FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.18 – 104.56

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131 ±13.3

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 17.42Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 62.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX -0.73Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 144 ±12.2

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 60.83Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 47.9Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -4.17Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11350, 623, 11211

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 623, 11211

Auto

21.9 28%

Teleop

24.6 31%

Endgame

32.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9033, 1915, 4505

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9033, 1915, 4505

Auto

23.1 23%

Teleop

65.1 66%

Endgame

10.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.2pts

Blue projected score104.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.4
Score range: 54–130
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131Season APEX144

21.9Auto23.1

24.6Teleop65.1

32.8Endgame10.5

47Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	15
teleop	20	43
endgame	16	15
foul	20	0
total	83	73

Result

Final score

83 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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