FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

103.53 – 264.48

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

205 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 131.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.7 ±12.8

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 20.28Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 98.84Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX -15.59Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 367.9 ±10.5

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 128.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 47.42Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 88.82Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8622, 3748, 3714

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8622, 3748, 3714

Auto

20.2 19%

Teleop

66.1 61%

Endgame

22.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1727, 6863, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1727, 6863, 1389

Auto

30.8 12%

Teleop

159.1 60%

Endgame

73.2 28%

Strengths

· 1727 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.5pts

Blue projected score264.5pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161
Score range: 79–289
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 308 vs event baseline 139.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.7Season APEX367.9

20.2Auto30.8

66.1Teleop159.1

22Endgame73.2

75Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	26
teleop	109	47
endgame	50	30
foul	10	0
total	205	103

Result

Final score

205 – 103

Prediction missed · off by 131.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.