FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.85 – 158.64

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.8 ±11.7

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -7.16Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 30.36Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 107.65Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.2 ±12.2

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 55.11Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 52.47Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 51.06Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1111, 2912, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1111, 2912, 614

Auto

32.1 26%

Teleop

74.7 60%

Endgame

18.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4541, 2849, 1418

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4541, 2849, 1418

Auto

20.3 14%

Teleop

84.4 58%

Endgame

40.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.9pts

Blue projected score158.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.8
Score range: 106–184
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 141.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.8Season APEX208.2

32.1Auto20.3

74.7Teleop84.4

18.2Endgame40.9

25Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	21
teleop	47	64
endgame	3	38
foul	5	0
total	98	123

Result

Final score

98 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 34.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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