FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.03 – 73.53

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

163 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339 ±11.2

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 107.39Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 44.88Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -18.24Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.1 ±12.4

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 25.75Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 88.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX -41Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 339, 10449

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1629, 339, 10449

Auto

27.0 20%

Teleop

71.5 53%

Endgame

35.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1915, 686, 2914

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1915, 686, 2914

Auto

21.0 26%

Teleop

30.9 39%

Endgame

27.7 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134pts

Blue projected score73.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60.5
Score range: 49–159
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339Season APEX334.1

27Auto21

71.5Teleop30.9

35.2Endgame27.7

82Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	46
teleop	130	91
endgame	19	29
foul	0	0
total	163	166

Result

Final score

163 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 60.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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