FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.65 – 0

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

139 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.4 ±11.7

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 132.19Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 75.04Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 8.42Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161 ±12.2

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX -27.97Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 11.67Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX -12.58Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 8726, 11211

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 8726, 11211

Auto

45.0 21%

Teleop

134.3 62%

Endgame

36.3 17%

Strengths

· 2199 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 7770, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

-28.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 7770, 1719

Auto

20.0 0%

Teleop

-28.8 80%

Endgame

-27.4 76%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.7pts

Blue projected score-28.9pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 215.7
Score range: -26–242
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.4Season APEX161

45Auto20

134.3Teleop-28.8

36.3Endgame-27.4

25Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	14
teleop	74	27
endgame	16	7
foul	0	0
total	139	48

Result

Final score

139 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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