FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.5 – 119.19

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.3 ±11.6

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 41.38Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 86.73Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -19.61Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.7 ±11.2

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 57.07Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 22.07Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 40.05Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 623, 3748, 2534

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 623, 3748, 2534

Auto

23.0 19%

Teleop

74.4 63%

Endgame

20.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11318, 1446, 4541

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11318, 1446, 4541

Auto

25.0 20%

Teleop

76.1 62%

Endgame

21.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108.5pts

Blue projected score119.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.7
Score range: 84–144
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.3Season APEX334.7

23Auto25

74.4Teleop76.1

20.8Endgame21.5

164Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	28
teleop	115	71
endgame	48	54
foul	0	0
total	191	153

Result

Final score

191 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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