FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.89 – 136.58

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 46.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.5 ±9.8

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 100.42Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX -1.01Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 38.48Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.4 ±11.2

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX -23.65Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 116.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 44.16Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 10679, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 614, 10679, 2377

Auto

34.5 25%

Teleop

92.2 68%

Endgame

9.7 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3714, 1727, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3714, 1727, 9033

Auto

18.9 15%

Teleop

66.2 52%

Endgame

42.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.9pts

Blue projected score136.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.3
Score range: 112–163
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 368 vs event baseline 138.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.5Season APEX339.4

34.5Auto18.9

92.2Teleop66.2

9.7Endgame42.6

64Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	36
teleop	75	124
endgame	24	34
foul	35	0
total	174	194

Result

Final score

174 – 194

Prediction missed · off by 46.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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