FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.44 – 42.05

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

133 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±10.5

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -2.17Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 65.69Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 59.92Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.5 ±13.9

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 5.73Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 27.57Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 8.75Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1111, 9033, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1111, 9033, 11318

Auto

31.2 24%

Teleop

67.4 52%

Endgame

30.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1915, 3714, 7770

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1915, 3714, 7770

Auto

16.7 45%

Teleop

11.3 30%

Endgame

9.4 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.4pts

Blue projected score42.1pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.4
Score range: 14–151
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 164 vs event baseline 154.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX121.5

31.2Auto16.7

67.4Teleop11.3

30.5Endgame9.4

52Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	15
teleop	60	5
endgame	39	11
foul	0	0
total	133	31

Result

Final score

133 – 31

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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