FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

201.99 – 77.36

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

113 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219 ±12.8

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 50.23Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 110.67Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 41.09Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.1 ±13.3

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 44.85Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 27.94Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 4.57Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2963, 8592, 8622

/ 100 compat

Projected

202 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2963, 8592, 8622

Auto

27.5 14%

Teleop

105.9 53%

Endgame

67.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6863, 2912, 11350

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 2912, 11350

Auto

6.8 9%

Teleop

43.4 54%

Endgame

29.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score202pts

Blue projected score77.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.6
Score range: 52–227
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 204 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219Season APEX137.1

27.5Auto6.8

105.9Teleop43.4

67.3Endgame29.6

76Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	79	43
endgame	11	27
foul	0	5
total	113	91

Result

Final score

113 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 51.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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