FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.2 – 149.65

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428 ±10.5

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 50.93Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 33.55Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 113.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 176.3 ±12.8

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX -0.82Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 62Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 88.47Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8726, 4541, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8726, 4541, 836

Auto

33.3 17%

Teleop

103.4 53%

Endgame

58.3 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10449, 2849, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10449, 2849, 1389

Auto

17.4 12%

Teleop

85.4 59%

Endgame

43.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.2pts

Blue projected score149.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.5
Score range: 125–223
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 382 vs event baseline 137.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428Season APEX176.3

33.3Auto17.4

103.4Teleop85.4

58.3Endgame43

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	20
teleop	157	58
endgame	34	41
foul	20	0
total	263	119

Result

Final score

263 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 47.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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