FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

90.47 – 49.57

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

178 – 11

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 242.1 ±11

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 18.6Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 53.31Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 18.56Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.8 ±12.7

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -20.81Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 23.5Rank 34Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX 46.88Rank 10Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9033, 1418, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9033, 1418, 339

Auto

17.3 20%

Teleop

43.7 49%

Endgame

27.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2534, 1111, 8622

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2534, 1111, 8622

Auto

15.1 31%

Teleop

8.2 17%

Endgame

25.5 52%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score90.5pts

Blue projected score49.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.9
Score range: 26–114
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

242.1Season APEX163.8

17.3Auto15.1

43.7Teleop8.2

27.5Endgame25.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	10
teleop	91	1
endgame	28	0
foul	35	0
total	178	11

Result

Final score

178 – 11

Prediction correct · off by 63.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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