FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.14 – 83.91

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 114.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.9 ±11.7

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 154.03Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 37.3Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 25.81Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.8 ±12.8

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 10.87Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 0.71Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 72.33Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 836, 11350, 4505

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 836, 11350, 4505

Auto

31.6 15%

Teleop

97.1 45%

Endgame

87.5 40%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1719, 3714, 2849

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1719, 3714, 2849

Auto

13.2 15%

Teleop

51.0 60%

Endgame

21.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.1pts

Blue projected score83.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.2
Score range: 58–243
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 72 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

348.9Season APEX171.8

31.6Auto13.2

97.1Teleop51

87.5Endgame21.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	8
teleop	23	7
endgame	9	9
foul	0	0
total	48	24

Result

Final score

48 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 114.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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