FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.37 – 102.07

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.5 ±12.8

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX -36.74Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 99.03Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2963AnaDroids

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 33.08Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.5 ±11

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 16.73Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 79.28Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 6.06Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2914, 1389, 2963

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2914, 1389, 2963

Auto

24.4 27%

Teleop

51.6 56%

Endgame

15.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 623, 8592, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 623, 8592, 10679

Auto

30.1 30%

Teleop

54.1 54%

Endgame

16.0 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.4pts

Blue projected score102.1pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.7
Score range: 70–127
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 266 vs event baseline 137.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.5Season APEX267.5

24.4Auto30.1

51.6Teleop54.1

15.5Endgame16

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	31
teleop	31	110
endgame	33	41
foul	5	0
total	84	182

Result

Final score

84 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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