FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.35 – 90.12

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 382.7 ±9.8

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 68.08Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 2.38Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 42.89Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 113.6 ±13.3

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 11.9Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 47.75Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 30.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3748, 1719, 11318

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3748, 1719, 11318

Auto

16.7 15%

Teleop

66.2 58%

Endgame

31.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1446, 4505, 2912

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1446, 4505, 2912

Auto

19.7 21%

Teleop

53.0 57%

Endgame

19.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.4pts

Blue projected score90.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.2
Score range: 65–138
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

382.7Season APEX113.6

16.7Auto19.7

66.2Teleop53

31.3Endgame19.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	9
teleop	92	14
endgame	20	14
foul	0	0
total	156	37

Result

Final score

156 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 47.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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