FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.33 – 80.69

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.2 ±11.7

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 67.7Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX 13.33Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 108.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.5 ±13.3

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 39.89Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX 27.47Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 13.33Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1418, 1915, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1418, 1915, 2199

Auto

27.7 14%

Teleop

117.7 62%

Endgame

45.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8726, 10449, 3714

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8726, 10449, 3714

Auto

19.9 24%

Teleop

40.6 50%

Endgame

20.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189.3pts

Blue projected score80.7pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108.6
Score range: 55–215
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 144.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.2Season APEX140.5

27.7Auto19.9

117.7Teleop40.6

45.7Endgame20.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	16
teleop	118	1
endgame	47	5
foul	0	0
total	195	22

Result

Final score

195 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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