FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.35 – 58.1

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 59.6 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.8 ±9.8

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 16.57Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 72.81Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 42.97Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.5 ±11.7

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 48.86Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 16.57Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX -7.33Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10679, 686, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 686, 9033

Auto

25.2 19%

Teleop

69.2 52%

Endgame

39.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8592, 339, 11211

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8592, 339, 11211

Auto

15.6 27%

Teleop

34.0 58%

Endgame

9.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.4pts

Blue projected score58.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 74.3
Score range: 32–158
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 146.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.8Season APEX268.5

25.2Auto15.6

69.2Teleop34

39.2Endgame9.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	22
teleop	52	84
endgame	9	36
foul	5	0
total	97	142

Result

Final score

97 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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