FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.71 – 110.27

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.4 ±11.2

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 11.99Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 4.38Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 113.34Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.5 ±12.2

10449Robo Crusaders 1

Season APEX 35Event APEX 12.49Rank 35Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 38.79Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 58.99Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1719, 11350, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1719, 11350, 1727

Auto

23.5 19%

Teleop

65.8 53%

Endgame

35.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10449, 623, 2377

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10449, 623, 2377

Auto

24.1 23%

Teleop

52.8 50%

Endgame

28.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.7pts

Blue projected score110.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.4
Score range: 82–158
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 154.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.4Season APEX173.5

23.5Auto24.1

65.8Teleop52.8

35.4Endgame28.3

17Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	20
teleop	69	29
endgame	43	19
foul	0	5
total	134	73

Result

Final score

134 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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