FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.7 – 213.5

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

318 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.2 ±9.9

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 162.71Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 21.04Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 165.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±9.3

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 2.73Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 113.1Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 97.67Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 2534, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 2534, 836

Auto

59.9 17%

Teleop

206.4 60%

Endgame

77.6 23%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10679, 1727, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 1727, 614

Auto

36.0 17%

Teleop

119.2 58%

Endgame

51.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score349.7pts

Blue projected score213.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.2
Score range: 186–378
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 542 vs event baseline 153.6.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.2Season APEX477.7

59.9Auto36

206.4Teleop119.2

77.6Endgame51.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	29
teleop	179	141
endgame	117	54
foul	0	0
total	318	224

Result

Final score

318 – 224

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.