FCH District Severn MD Event presented by Arcfield

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

343.96 – 215.11

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

391 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.2 ±9.9

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 160.75Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2534Lumberjack Robotics

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 19.14Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 164.07Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.7 ±9.3

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 3.44Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 113.41Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 98.26Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2199, 2534, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

344 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 2534, 836

Auto

57.6 17%

Teleop

204.4 61%

Endgame

75.4 22%

Strengths

· 836 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10679, 1727, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 1727, 614

Auto

36.8 18%

Teleop

120.8 58%

Endgame

50.4 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score344pts

Blue projected score215.1pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample170alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 128.8
Score range: 188–371
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 593 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.2Season APEX477.7

57.6Auto36.8

204.4Teleop120.8

75.4Endgame50.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	77	30
teleop	220	106
endgame	94	61
foul	0	5
total	391	202

Result

Final score

391 – 202

Prediction correct · off by 30.1 pts

Match videos

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