FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.92 – 106.38

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.1 ±9.9

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 4.64Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 59.5Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 79.78Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241 ±11.6

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 20.04Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 39.1Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 47.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4505, 686, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 686, 2199

Auto

20.9 14%

Teleop

94.0 64%

Endgame

31.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6326, 4541, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 4541, 5115

Auto

32.0 32%

Teleop

54.8 54%

Endgame

13.8 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.9pts

Blue projected score106.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.5
Score range: 84–166
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 120.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.1Season APEX241

20.9Auto32

94Teleop54.8

31.3Endgame13.8

36Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	34
teleop	68	34
endgame	43	43
foul	0	0
total	135	111

Result

Final score

135 – 111

Prediction correct · off by 6.8 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.