FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

332.31 – 131.56

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

445 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 98.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 546.4 ±9.3

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 232.37Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 20.92Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 79.02Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.1 ±9.9

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 0.71Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 55.26Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 75.59Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9072, 8590, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

332.3 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 8590, 1629

Auto

69.7 21%

Teleop

199.2 61%

Endgame

58.3 18%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 686, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 686, 2199

Auto

20.4 15%

Teleop

88.4 66%

Endgame

24.3 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score332.3pts

Blue projected score131.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 200.8
Score range: 111–353
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 660 vs event baseline 115.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

546.4Season APEX490.1

69.7Auto20.4

199.2Teleop88.4

58.3Endgame24.3

0Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	24
teleop	254	127
endgame	72	64
foul	60	0
total	445	215

Result

Final score

445 – 215

Prediction correct · off by 98.1 pts

Match videos

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