FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.68 – 79.42

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241 ±11.6

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 20.06Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 39.49Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 46.13Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.7 ±11.6

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 12.23Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 33.24Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 33.95Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6326, 4541, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 4541, 5115

Auto

30.0 30%

Teleop

56.4 57%

Endgame

12.9 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 623, 1418, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 623, 1418, 10679

Auto

15.9 20%

Teleop

41.0 52%

Endgame

21.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.7pts

Blue projected score79.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.3
Score range: 58–127
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 116.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241Season APEX202.7

30Auto15.9

56.4Teleop41

12.9Endgame21.6

18Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	8
teleop	49	7
endgame	19	10
foul	5	0
total	115	25

Result

Final score

115 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 31.9 pts

Match videos

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