FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.07 – 87.35

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 180.9 ±11.6

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 19.78Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 27.77Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 18.52Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.6 ±11.6

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 29.14Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 29.24Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 28.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4821, 3748, 7886

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4821, 3748, 7886

Auto

12.8 20%

Teleop

34.4 54%

Endgame

16.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6863, 6239, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 6239, 9033

Auto

23.4 27%

Teleop

41.0 47%

Endgame

22.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.1pts

Blue projected score87.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.3
Score range: 45–108
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 116.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

180.9Season APEX215.6

12.8Auto23.4

34.4Teleop41

16.3Endgame22.3

25Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	26
teleop	23	49
endgame	4	30
foul	0	0
total	66	105

Result

Final score

66 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 8.9 pts

Match videos

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