FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.4 – 84.94

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

218 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.5 ±9.8

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 8.45Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 81.13Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 83.82Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 202.7 ±11.6

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 14.02Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 35.06Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 35.86Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2421, 2537, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2421, 2537, 614

Auto

45.0 26%

Teleop

90.8 53%

Endgame

34.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 623, 1418, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 623, 1418, 10679

Auto

16.5 20%

Teleop

48.3 57%

Endgame

19.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.4pts

Blue projected score84.9pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.5
Score range: 64–194
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.5Season APEX202.7

45Auto16.5

90.8Teleop48.3

34.2Endgame19.2

33Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	16
teleop	96	13
endgame	48	32
foul	0	0
total	218	61

Result

Final score

218 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 34.3 pts

Match videos

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