FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.17 – 115.89

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

250 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.2 ±9.8

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 70.62Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 85.41Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 18.14Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241 ±11.6

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 23.34Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 43.11Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 49.44Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 836, 888, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 836, 888, 1719

Auto

36.4 21%

Teleop

95.8 55%

Endgame

42.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6326, 4541, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 4541, 5115

Auto

28.7 26%

Teleop

67.3 62%

Endgame

13.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.2pts

Blue projected score115.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.3
Score range: 95–195
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.2Season APEX241

36.4Auto28.7

95.8Teleop67.3

42Endgame13.2

9Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	39
teleop	116	10
endgame	61	13
foul	0	5
total	250	67

Result

Final score

250 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 62.4 pts

Match videos

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