FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.69 – 86.03

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

145 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 7.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.1 ±9.9

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 0.39Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 54.22Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 75.08Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.6 ±11.6

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 28.39Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 28.88Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 28.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4505, 686, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 686, 2199

Auto

23.9 18%

Teleop

82.6 63%

Endgame

25.4 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6863, 6239, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

86 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 6239, 9033

Auto

26.7 31%

Teleop

38.1 45%

Endgame

20.5 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.7pts

Blue projected score86pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.7
Score range: 65–151
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 115.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.1Season APEX215.6

23.9Auto26.7

82.6Teleop38.1

25.4Endgame20.5

42Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	108	43
endgame	24	31
foul	0	0
total	145	86

Result

Final score

145 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 7.7 pts

Match videos

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