FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.69 – 185.43

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

204 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 3.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 514.2 ±9.8

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 78.25Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 94.41Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 27.03Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.5 ±9.8

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 11.78Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 86.01Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 87.64Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 836, 888, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 836, 888, 1719

Auto

44.6 23%

Teleop

109.0 55%

Endgame

43.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2421, 2537, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2421, 2537, 614

Auto

55.9 31%

Teleop

87.5 48%

Endgame

38.6 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.7pts

Blue projected score185.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.3
Score range: 163–222
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 122.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

514.2Season APEX404.5

44.6Auto55.9

109Teleop87.5

43.2Endgame38.6

5Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	63
teleop	124	97
endgame	23	8
foul	0	15
total	204	183

Result

Final score

204 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 3.4 pts

Match videos

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