FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.54 – 142.28

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.5 ±9.8

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 11.77Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 86.08Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 87.69Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 490.1 ±9.9

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 4.01Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 58.88Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 79.39Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2421, 2537, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2421, 2537, 614

Auto

54.8 30%

Teleop

91.9 50%

Endgame

37.0 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 686, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 686, 2199

Auto

21.3 15%

Teleop

90.2 62%

Endgame

33.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.5pts

Blue projected score142.3pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.3
Score range: 120–208
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 122.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.5Season APEX490.1

54.8Auto21.3

91.9Teleop90.2

37Endgame33

25Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	18
teleop	56	70
endgame	50	39
foul	15	0
total	184	127

Result

Final score

184 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Match videos

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