FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.52 – 66.86

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 52.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 151.9 ±12.2

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 10.29Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 60.09Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 19.14Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 371.9 ±9.8

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 36.57Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 14.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 16Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2421, 7886, 7770

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2421, 7886, 7770

Auto

16.6 19%

Teleop

47.1 53%

Endgame

25.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10679, 2199, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 2199, 1719

Auto

11.2 18%

Teleop

41.1 67%

Endgame

8.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.5pts

Blue projected score66.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.7
Score range: 52–105
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 85.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

151.9Season APEX371.9

16.6Auto11.2

47.1Teleop41.1

25.9Endgame8.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	27
teleop	9	76
endgame	18	18
foul	0	0
total	39	121

Result

Final score

39 – 121

Prediction missed · off by 52.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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