FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.61 – 105.92

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

34 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.4 ±11

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 25.29Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 23.07Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 12.25Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390.9 ±10.5

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 22.26Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 3.54Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 80.12Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6326, 8590, 2421

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 8590, 2421

Auto

19.1 33%

Teleop

31.5 55%

Endgame

6.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3748, 1111, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3748, 1111, 614

Auto

35.0 33%

Teleop

47.7 45%

Endgame

24.0 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.6pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.3
Score range: 40–127
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.4Season APEX390.9

19.1Auto35

31.5Teleop47.7

6.6Endgame24

15Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	46
teleop	6	91
endgame	14	26
foul	0	0
total	34	163

Result

Final score

34 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 41.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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