FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.17 – 66.3

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.3 ±11.7

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 14.58Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 1.63Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 70.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 184.6 ±12.2

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 40.26Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 11.58Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 14.46Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7886, 5830, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7886, 5830, 2199

Auto

15.5 17%

Teleop

47.9 54%

Endgame

26.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10679, 8726, 5841

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 8726, 5841

Auto

16.6 25%

Teleop

45.0 67%

Endgame

5.6 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.2pts

Blue projected score66.3pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.9
Score range: 45–108
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.3Season APEX184.6

15.5Auto16.6

47.9Teleop45

26Endgame5.6

73Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	12
teleop	84	9
endgame	33	5
foul	0	0
total	130	26

Result

Final score

130 – 26

Prediction correct · off by 41.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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