FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

287.79 – 131.58

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322 ±12.4

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 18.21Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 32.19Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 237.39Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413 ±9.8

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 40.93Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 14.39Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 76.26Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11350, 2849, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 2849, 9072

Auto

51.8 18%

Teleop

163.6 58%

Endgame

65.5 23%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4541, 1719, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4541, 1719, 1629

Auto

33.3 25%

Teleop

81.4 61%

Endgame

18.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score287.8pts

Blue projected score131.6pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 156.2
Score range: 112–308
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 113.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322Season APEX413

51.8Auto33.3

163.6Teleop81.4

65.5Endgame18.8

9Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	37
teleop	136	107
endgame	57	29
foul	0	0
total	234	173

Result

Final score

234 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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