FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

304 – 67.69

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.3 ±10.7

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 229.39Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 68.54Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 6.07Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.6 ±11.6

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 24.49Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 13.36Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 29.84Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9072, 1629, 5841

/ 100 compat

Projected

304 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 1629, 5841

Auto

58.8 20%

Teleop

186.9 62%

Endgame

53.9 18%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9033, 623, 6863

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9033, 623, 6863

Auto

23.2 34%

Teleop

29.9 44%

Endgame

14.4 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score304pts

Blue projected score67.7pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 236.3
Score range: 48–324
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 429 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

524.3Season APEX189.6

58.8Auto23.2

186.9Teleop29.9

53.9Endgame14.4

67Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	20
teleop	190	17
endgame	90	19
foul	15	0
total	373	56

Result

Final score

373 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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