FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.19 – 69.79

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.4 ±12.8

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 96.03Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 13.1Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 26.06Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.3 ±12.2

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -7.66Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 39.32Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 38.13Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 888, 7770, 4464

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 888, 7770, 4464

Auto

23.8 18%

Teleop

70.0 52%

Endgame

40.0 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8622, 4541, 6239

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8622, 4541, 6239

Auto

28.4 41%

Teleop

35.1 51%

Endgame

5.1 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.2pts

Blue projected score69.8pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.4
Score range: 49–156
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.4Season APEX229.3

23.8Auto28.4

70Teleop35.1

40Endgame5.1

0Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	22
teleop	61	20
endgame	15	0
foul	0	0
total	96	42

Result

Final score

96 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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