FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.81 – 51.64

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

31 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.7 ±12.7

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 30.73Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 24.15Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 3.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 163.7 ±12.2

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 18.97Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 10.44Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 22.23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6239, 2849, 4505

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6239, 2849, 4505

Auto

9.1 15%

Teleop

28.5 47%

Endgame

23.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4821, 5841, 8590

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4821, 5841, 8590

Auto

16.6 38%

Teleop

23.4 53%

Endgame

3.9 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.8pts

Blue projected score51.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.2
Score range: 29–82
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 61 vs event baseline 125.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.7Season APEX163.7

9.1Auto16.6

28.5Teleop23.4

23.3Endgame3.9

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	13
teleop	11	12
endgame	14	5
foul	0	0
total	31	30

Result

Final score

31 – 30

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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