FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.33 – 122.64

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

41 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 27 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.2 ±12.7

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 6.12Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 14.2Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 22.01Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.6 ±11.7

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 92.49Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 4.23Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 25.92Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4505, 2900, 6326

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 2900, 6326

Auto

11.4 33%

Teleop

8.1 23%

Endgame

15.4 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2537, 5830, 8590

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2537, 5830, 8590

Auto

28.9 24%

Teleop

65.0 55%

Endgame

24.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.3pts

Blue projected score122.6pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.3
Score range: 21–144
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 116.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.2Season APEX262.6

11.4Auto28.9

8.1Teleop65

15.4Endgame24.3

35Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	30
teleop	12	37
endgame	11	3
foul	0	0
total	41	70

Result

Final score

41 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 27 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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