FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

160.75 – 52.75

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 360.7 ±11.1

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 76.03Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 52Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 32.72Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.7 ±11.6

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 2.14Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 38.99Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 11.62Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 5115, 1418

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 614, 5115, 1418

Auto

35.2 23%

Teleop

92.6 60%

Endgame

27.5 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1111, 4541, 7886

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1111, 4541, 7886

Auto

17.2 30%

Teleop

24.5 43%

Endgame

15.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.05 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score160.8pts

Blue projected score52.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 108
Score range: 32–182
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 116.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

360.7Season APEX219.7

35.2Auto17.2

92.6Teleop24.5

27.5Endgame15

67Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	28
teleop	90	17
endgame	45	14
foul	0	0
total	191	59

Result

Final score

191 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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