FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.85 – 80.32

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

149 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.6 ±11.7

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 11.33Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 88.59Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 12.93Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.8 ±12.8

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -11.89Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 91.15Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 1.06Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2900, 2537, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2900, 2537, 1719

Auto

26.6 26%

Teleop

46.8 45%

Endgame

30.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8622, 888, 5841

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8622, 888, 5841

Auto

22.9 28%

Teleop

46.1 57%

Endgame

11.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.9pts

Blue projected score80.3pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.5
Score range: 59–134
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 114.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.6Season APEX257.8

26.6Auto22.9

46.8Teleop46.1

30.3Endgame11.5

42Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	30
teleop	81	74
endgame	40	21
foul	0	0
total	149	125

Result

Final score

149 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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