FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.04 – 83.75

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.5 ±12.2

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 24.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 30.41Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 24.22Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.9 ±12.1

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 38.44Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 33.27Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 12.04Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11350, 3748, 6326

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 3748, 6326

Auto

14.4 19%

Teleop

43.6 58%

Endgame

17.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6239, 1418, 7886

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6239, 1418, 7886

Auto

13.5 16%

Teleop

43.7 52%

Endgame

26.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79pts

Blue projected score83.8pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.7
Score range: 58–105
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 135 vs event baseline 115.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.5Season APEX168.9

14.4Auto13.5

43.6Teleop43.7

17.7Endgame26.9

13Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	18
teleop	20	40
endgame	15	28
foul	0	0
total	49	86

Result

Final score

49 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 16.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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