FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.2 – 39.84

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 379.6 ±9.8

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 26.65Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 67.62Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 40.93Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111.7 ±12.7

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 9.89Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 24.62Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 5.33Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8590, 1629, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8590, 1629, 10679

Auto

28.8 21%

Teleop

86.5 64%

Endgame

19.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 623, 4464, 4505

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 623, 4464, 4505

Auto

10.0 24%

Teleop

16.2 40%

Endgame

14.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.2pts

Blue projected score39.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95.4
Score range: 19–156
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

379.6Season APEX111.7

28.8Auto10

86.5Teleop16.2

19.7Endgame14.7

37Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	9
teleop	90	27
endgame	1	16
foul	0	0
total	129	52

Result

Final score

129 – 52

Prediction correct · off by 9.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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