FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

30.05 – 148.98

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.5 ±12.8

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX -2.33Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 10.42Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 21.96Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 514.1 ±9.9

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 6.14Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 73.12Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 69.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5841, 1719, 11350

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5841, 1719, 11350

Auto

9.9 30%

Teleop

19.4 59%

Endgame

3.6 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8726, 614, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

149 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8726, 614, 836

Auto

43.2 30%

Teleop

73.7 51%

Endgame

28.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score30.1pts

Blue projected score149pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.9
Score range: 9–170
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 241 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

175.5Season APEX514.1

9.9Auto43.2

19.4Teleop73.7

3.6Endgame28.9

35Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	41
teleop	25	111
endgame	18	36
foul	0	0
total	53	188

Result

Final score

53 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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