FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.18 – 121.59

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.8 ±11.1

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 34.97Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 73.1Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 18.11Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.2 ±12.8

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 10.99Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 94.39Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 16.21Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6239, 2199, 4821

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 6239, 2199, 4821

Auto

19.0 16%

Teleop

68.8 58%

Endgame

29.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5830, 888, 2900

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5830, 888, 2900

Auto

20.9 18%

Teleop

62.6 54%

Endgame

32.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.2pts

Blue projected score121.6pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.6
Score range: 101–147
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.8Season APEX282.2

19Auto20.9

68.8Teleop62.6

29.9Endgame32

39Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	31
teleop	92	11
endgame	54	39
foul	0	0
total	174	81

Result

Final score

174 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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