FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.57 – 51.94

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 457.5 ±10.5

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 80.5Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 90.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 7.62Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 114.5 ±12.7

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 20.64Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 24.39Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 6.91Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 888, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1629, 888, 1111

Auto

36.9 21%

Teleop

101.4 58%

Endgame

37.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6326, 4464, 8726

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 4464, 8726

Auto

9.4 19%

Teleop

26.7 54%

Endgame

13.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.6pts

Blue projected score51.9pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.6
Score range: 29–202
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 125.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

457.5Season APEX114.5

36.9Auto9.4

101.4Teleop26.7

37.3Endgame13.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	9
teleop	64	8
endgame	16	7
foul	5	0
total	109	24

Result

Final score

109 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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