FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.32 – 53.45

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.4 ±11.6

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 24.91Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 4.99Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 21.42Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 232 ±11

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 0.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 18.73Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 33.79Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6863, 7886, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 7886, 3748

Auto

14.7 26%

Teleop

24.6 44%

Endgame

17.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 9033, 4541

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 9033, 4541

Auto

26.9 47%

Teleop

32.9 58%

Endgame

-2.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.3pts

Blue projected score53.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 30–74
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 116.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.4Season APEX232

14.7Auto26.9

24.6Teleop32.9

17Endgame-2.6

34Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	32
teleop	65	58
endgame	29	17
foul	0	0
total	118	107

Result

Final score

118 – 107

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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