FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.24 – 342.24

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 158.6 ±12.7

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 39.74Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 29.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 57.22Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 410.8 ±11.2

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 91.36Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 231.3Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 19.58Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2849, 6326, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2849, 6326, 5115

Auto

12.2 11%

Teleop

75.9 66%

Endgame

26.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2537, 9072, 4464

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2537, 9072, 4464

Auto

63.9 19%

Teleop

192.1 58%

Endgame

77.7 23%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.2pts

Blue projected score342.2pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -216
Score range: 105–363
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

158.6Season APEX410.8

12.2Auto63.9

75.9Teleop192.1

26.7Endgame77.7

0Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	59
teleop	45	226
endgame	27	66
foul	0	15
total	90	366

Result

Final score

90 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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