FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.05 – 132.87

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 88.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±11

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 81.58Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 19.78Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX -1.31Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378 ±11.2

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 34.78Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 74.97Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 23.12Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 888, 8590, 623

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 888, 8590, 623

Auto

29.4 29%

Teleop

61.2 61%

Endgame

9.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11350, 686, 2421

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 686, 2421

Auto

19.7 14%

Teleop

83.5 61%

Endgame

32.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score132.9pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.8
Score range: 79–154
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274Season APEX378

29.4Auto19.7

61.2Teleop83.5

9.2Endgame32.8

14Consistency7

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	24
teleop	97	21
endgame	63	7
foul	0	0
total	197	52

Result

Final score

197 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 88.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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