FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.85 – 90.22

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.9 ±11

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 17.39Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 24.07Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 37.39Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.1 ±12.4

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 11.04Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 11.05Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 68.13Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9033, 3748, 1418

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9033, 3748, 1418

Auto

16.7 21%

Teleop

55.1 69%

Endgame

8.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7770, 2900, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7770, 2900, 614

Auto

37.5 43%

Teleop

28.3 32%

Endgame

21.4 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score90.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.4
Score range: 58–111
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 192 vs event baseline 115.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.9Season APEX296.1

16.7Auto37.5

55.1Teleop28.3

8Endgame21.4

48Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	35
teleop	33	24
endgame	8	39
foul	0	20
total	74	118

Result

Final score

74 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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