FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.92 – 245.67

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.2 ±13.3

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 39.69Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 28.77Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -10.54Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.7 ±11.1

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 219.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 9.96Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 15.93Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2849, 6863, 8622

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2849, 6863, 8622

Auto

10.8 18%

Teleop

30.1 51%

Endgame

18.4 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9072, 4821, 6326

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9072, 4821, 6326

Auto

41.6 17%

Teleop

130.8 54%

Endgame

68.3 28%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.9pts

Blue projected score245.7pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -187.7
Score range: 38–266
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 113.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.2Season APEX331.7

10.8Auto41.6

30.1Teleop130.8

18.4Endgame68.3

62Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	60
teleop	8	201
endgame	11	47
foul	10	45
total	46	353

Result

Final score

46 – 353

Prediction correct · off by 59.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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